A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
